Experts from the University of the Philippines (UP) on Thursday projected that around 16,500 to 20,500 cases may occur in the National Capital Region (NCR) by 30 June based on its current trend.

According to UP Professors Guido David and Ranjit Rye the estimated R-naught or virus reproduction rate between 0.96 to 1.2 puts NCR into the area of medium to high-risk and a perceived a death toll ranging from 1,070 to 1,200 is also projected to occur in NCR on the same date.

For Cebu, experts said that if its present R-naught rate of two continues, the expected rise of cases may reach to about 11,000 along with 90 deaths also by 30 June.

Rye said that an R-naught rate is deemed positive if it is recorded to be lower than one.

“If it’s higher than one it means our management of the pandemic needs to be improved….if less than one it means management is good and if we sustain it below one, we can lower the infection and eventually it will die out,” said Rye.

David, on the other hand, said that most of the cases at present are centered around NCR and Cebu.