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the independent research firm OCTA projects a 30,000 daily fresh cases of COVID-19 in the Philippines by next week, amid the spread of the Delta variant in the country.

But, OCTA research fellow Guido David, said it doesn’t see 43,000 daily new infections in Metro Manila alone, as projected by the Department of Health (DOH).

“Maaring umabot tayo ng 30,000 sa buong Pilipinas by end of September sa trajectory, pero di namin nakikita ang 43,000 sa Metro Manila alone,” David said in a radio interview.

“It could happen baka today or tomorrow. Nandyan ang possibility, definitely by next week mukhang mahihigitan natin yan.”

The decline of the country’s reproduction number, or the number of people infected by a single virus patient, is slowing down, according to David.

It is currently at 1.32 nationwide, and 1.41 in Metro Manila, he said.

“Pag umabot tayo ng 43,000 sa Metro Manila, ang ADR (daily attack rate) aabot ng 300. Just to put it into perspective, this will be much worse than India, Indonesia,” he said.

“Kung mangyayari yan, pero wala yan sa projections namin sa ngayon, sobrang malaking impact niyan sa ating bansa, sa NCR.
Maraming mamamatay, maraming masasawi kung ganyan kataas ang bilang ng kaso.”

The Philippines’ positivity rate, or the number of those who take a COVID-19 test and turn positive, is at 27 percent to 28 percent, while it is 25 percent in Metro Manila, David said.

Among areas with the most cases are the capital region, Laguna, Cavite, Rizal, Bulacan, Cebu (including Cebu City), Iloilo (including Iloilo City), Davao del Sur (including Davao City), Cagayan, Bukidnon, Tarlac, Quezon, and Pangasinan, according to David.

The number of cases in Metro Manila is expected to decline in the second or third week this month, he said.

“We just have to be patient to strictly implement whatever ang restrictions natin (our restrictions). Bawasan ang non-essential travel at sumunod sa health restrictions,” he said.

The capital region will continue to implement granular lockdown, while government is still studying and monitoring whether to retain its quarantine classification, said Benhur Abalos, chairman of Metropolitan Manila Development Authority.

“If there’s one thing na talagang naging magkakaiba nung araw at ngayon ay yung bakuna (that’s different from before and now, it’s the vaccine),” he said.

“Tingnan natin nung nabakunahan–dumami ang kaso mo pero napakaraming asymptomatic.”

(When people were vaccinated–there were many cases but most are asymptomatic.)

The region has administered first doses to 12,950,718 residents while it has fully vaccinated half of its target population, he added.

“I’m very sure naka-50 percent na tayo na (that 50 percent are) fully protected,” he said.