DOST – PAGASA issued an El Niño alert based on climate models there is a 79% chance of El Niño emerging in June to August and may likely persist until early 2027. 

PAGASA Administrator Dr. Nathaniel Servando explained that El Niño is characterized by “cooler-than-average sea surface temperature over the Philippine Sea and warmer-than-average sea surface temperature in the Central and Eastern Equatorial Pacific.”

“During an El Niño event, there is an increased possibility of drier-than-usual conditions, which can lead to negative impacts such as drought and dry spells in some parts of the country,” he said. 

It is important to note, however, that above-normal rainfall may also be experienced in the western section of the country during the Southwest Monsoon Season.

Some of the country’s most destructive tropical cyclones, including Ondoy, happened during El Niño years. 

Climate models, however, differ in terms of forecasting the strength of the possible El Niño. PAGASA is confident the El Niño will be anywhere between moderate to strong. 

PAGASA’s Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section, states that the issuance of the alert would be a good time for local governments and agencies to revisit, improve and begin implementing measures that cushion the impacts of the climate phenomenon especially in densely populated regions like Metro Manila,

“Yung critical facilities, infrastructure na pwedeng malubog sa baha o masira ng hangin. Nakikita natin yung combination hindi lang rain bearing kasama din ang hangin. So, kasama ang mga critical facilities natin na posibleng maapektuhan. Kailangan  ng prevention and intervention na nakahanda,” the weather bureau said. 

The alert aims to give local governments time to prepare for potential impacts and should therefore be maximized, PAGASA said.

With the issuance of the alert, Task Force El Niño is set to convene to discuss preparedness, especially in the most vulnerable sectors of agriculture, water and health.

The agency says it will continue to monitor developments of the phenomenon and encourages the public to brace for the effects of the developing El Niño.