Philippine Rice Industry Stakeholders Movement warned an increase of P1 to P2 peso in rice retail price amid  directive of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. to suspend importation for two months.

Group lead convenor Rowena Sadicon said when imported rice is reduced, the [supply] of local rice will increase… We expect the price to increase… It’s already having an effect in prices of palay.

“’Yung epekto, tataas ang presyo ng palay sa mga magsasaka. Tataas ‘yan ng mga P1 to P2 [per kilo]… Most likely, P1 to P2 din ang itataas sa retail price ng bigas,” Sadicon added.

Last Wednesday, President Marcos ordered the suspension of all rice importation for two months starting in September upon the recommendation of Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel Jr. to safeguards for local rice farmers during harvest season.

According to the Philippine Statistics Authority, base effects will likely cause the retail price of rice to decline in the next four months.

In July, rice inflation saw a sharper year-on-year deflation, or “negative inflation,” at -15.9% from -14.3% in June.

The average rice prices nationwide in July 2025 were as follows:

• Regular milled: P41.31 per kilo from P50.90 per kilo in July 2024
• Well-milled: P47.60 per kilo from P55.85 per kilo
• Special: P56.83 per kilo from P64.42 per kilo year-on-year

The trend of declining inflation for rice seen since August 2024 was consistent with the PSA’s expectation that it will begin easing towards the second half of 2024 due to base effects, particularly when it began its uptrend in August 2023, as well as the impact of the lower rice import tariff, which took effect in July last year.